Case Study 25 / 27Transport Infrastructure Planning / Surface Access Modeling / Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

Heathrow Surface Access Demand Generation & Non-Private Transport Assessment

Investigated demand from 362 UK Local Authorities to Heathrow (52M annual trips) via SATH, HSR, and coach networks.

Problem

Heathrow's surface access faced capacity and environmental pressure, requiring a baseline across 362 UK local authorities.

Solution

Investigated demand from 362 UK Local Authorities to Heathrow (52M annual trips) via SATH, HSR, and coach networks.

Impact

A baseline for a formal appraisal (5-Case Model & MCA), showing positive NPV for rail and coach interchanges.

A Executive Summary

Overview

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Project No.

26

Client / Org

Imperial College London (with Arup)

Role

Postgraduate Design Team

Year

2024

Location

United Kingdom

Discipline

Engineering & Academic

Postgraduate transport design at Imperial College London with Arup, investigating surface access demand to Heathrow.

Overview — Project Exhibits2 images · add up to 26.12

Heathrow Surface Access Demand Generation & Non-Private Transport Assessment — exhibit 26.1 — Imperial College London (with Arup) · 2024 · Exhibit 26.1

Heathrow Surface Access Demand Generation & Non-Private Transport Assessment — exhibit 26.2 — Imperial College London (with Arup) · 2024 · Exhibit 26.2

B Outcomes

Strategic Business Impact

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01

Demand Aggregation & Visualization

A Power BI suite quantifying demand per authority—Westminster (5.6M), Kensington & Chelsea (2.3M).

02

Regional & Modal Breakdown

52M trips by region (London 28M) and modal shares (Car 36.8%, Rail 31.61%).

03

5-Case Model & MCA Appraisal

An appraisal around the DfT 5-Case Model and multi-criteria analysis.

C Delivery

End-to-End Ownership & Technical Execution

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01

Strategic & Economic Case

Quantified user benefits against costs for positive NPV.

02

Commercial, Financial & Management Cases

PPP structures and revenue models with Arup inputs.

03

Multivariate Analysis

Scatter plots cross-examining mode shares against demand.

Surface Access5-Case ModelMCAPower BIArup

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Heathrow Surface Access Demand Generation & Non-Private Transport Assessment

Overview

Strategic Business Impact

Demand Aggregation & Visualization

Regional & Modal Breakdown

5-Case Model & MCA Appraisal

End-to-End Ownership & Technical Execution

Strategic & Economic Case

Commercial, Financial & Management Cases

Multivariate Analysis

Master’s Dissertation: Travel Behavior & Stated Preference Impacts of Road User Charging

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